The Bout of Facts Outwitting Fictions: When in Doubt, Observe the Exchange Rate in the Highlight

Some people are going haywire because facts have finally overthrown fiction. The noise merchants are unsettled. The professional propagandists are angry. For the first time in a long while, Jandam is struggling to outrun data. And it shows. Sammy Gyamfi, the CEO of GOLDBOD, is on the 'chopping board.

What is especially disorienting for them is this: unlike the previous administration, which governed loudly and defensively, this one has been modest, restrained, and largely sincere in tone. No chest beating. No miracle narratives. No manufactured confidence. Just numbers and figures released with caution, verified by institutions, and an economy allowed to cool instead of being constantly and cosmetically dressed up for applause.

Inflation, which stood at 23.8 percent in December 2024, fell into single digits by October 2025 (8.0 percent) and further to 6.3 percent by November 2025. The 91-day Treasury bill, at 27.73 percent in December 2024, dropped to 14.73 percent by June 2025. The cedi, long a symbol of national anxiety, stabilized and strengthened sharply.

Bank of Ghana figures reported by business media indicate an appreciation of about 32.2 percent between January and November 2025, while the Ministry of Finance cited a movement from roughly GH¢16.35 per dollar in late 2024 to about GH¢10.92 by mid-November 2025.

As a result, confidence is quietly returning, locally and globally. Not because it was shouted into existence, but because it is being earned. That shift explains the discomfort. Propaganda thrives on chaos and exaggeration. It withers in the presence of modesty and measurable progress.

For the ordinary Ghanaian, however, 2025 did not feel like a celebration. It felt like breathing space. Prices stopped changing every time you turned your back. Inflation falling by about 17.5 percentage points within a year, from 23.8 percent to 6.3 percent, removed the shock factor. Food still cost more than it should, but the market no longer felt predatory. The money you carried could at least predict tomorrow.

Again, salaries stopped losing value as fast as before. Pay did not suddenly become comfortable, but it no longer evaporated mid-month. Planning became possible again, even if modest. Shop owners could restock without gambling. Traders stopped guessing whether replacing goods would bankrupt them. With the exchange rate no longer swinging violently, import costs stabilized, and small businesses priced with more confidence.

Transport fares, school fees, and utilities stopped jumping without warning. Interest rate easing and fuel price volatility moderating reduced the weekly ambush. Life became less chaotic, not easier. There is a difference.

None of this meant jobs suddenly appeared. Growth improved, but unemployment and underemployment remain stubborn. Youth frustration did not disappear. Degrees still wait. Skills still search for opportunity. Output growth does not automatically translate into paychecks.

It did not mean loans became accessible. Despite Treasury yields falling by over 1,300 basis points, banks remain cautious after the domestic debt restructuring. Credit is still expensive or unavailable for many small businesses and individuals. The engine is running, but fuel is not reaching everyone.

What changed was the pace of pain. The bleeding slowed. The shocks became less frequent. The panic eased. It did not mean food became cheap. Agriculture remains exposed to climate risks. Consumers still feel pressure. Relief came from slower price increases, not abundance. It did not mean poverty vanished. Rent is still heavy. Healthcare is still stressful. Education still stretches families. Stability does not erase struggle.

Trade moved into surplus, with the Ministry of Finance citing a US$7.4 billion trade surplus. Gross international reserves rose to about US$11.12 billion by the end of June 2025, covering 4.8 months of imports. Public debt ratios improved, declining from 61.8 percent of GDP to 43.8 percent by June 2025 and around 45 percent by October 2025, aided by restructuring, fiscal discipline, and currency stability.

These developments do not put food on the table immediately. But they stop the table from collapsing. For ordinary citizens, 2025 was not about prosperity. It was about survival becoming more predictable. It was about life no longer feeling like an emergency every week.

What happens next will determine whether this pause becomes progress or just another quiet moment before pressure returns.